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Europe’s major holiday destinations are likely to miss out on places on the green list, new analysis has revealed.
Robert Boyle, a former BA strategist, and Paul Charles, chief executive of the PC Agency, both of whom correctly predicted the last round of green list countries, have suggested just a small handful of Mediterranean, Atlantic and Caribbean islands could make it onto the list at the next update – expected next week – including the Canary Islands, Greek islands, Malta, Barbados and Jamaica.
This leaves travellers hoping to visit the likes of France, Italy and mainland Spain facing quarantine on their return home for the foreseeable future, as the destinations are likely to remain on the amber list.
Using methods similar to those adopted by the Joint Biosecurity Centre, which informs the Government’s traffic light system, the duo agrees the pandemic statistics in these countries are still too high to be considered for ‘safe’ travel.
For example, Spain’s seven-day case rate per 100,000 is currently 299, compared to the UK’s 28. In France the case rate is 102 and in Italy, 45 per 100,000. The speed of vaccination has increased somewhat in Europe, but nations still lag behind the UK’s target. 42 per cent of the population in Spain has received a first dose, 43 per cent in France and 41 per cent in Italy.
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France: Ban on non-essential travel
France has clarified that non-essential travel from the UK will be banned from Monday, due to the spread of the Indian coronavirus variant.
French officials have said travel to the country should only be allowed, for example, for bereavement or childcare. Arrivals from the UK face seven days in isolation and are required to take several tests.
Independent Sage member: ‘Delay international travel’
Professor Christina Pagel, from University College London and a member of Independent Sage, said the Indian variant was causing concern and the road map should be delayed. She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Certainly we have weakened the link significantly between cases and hospitalisations, but we haven’t broken it.”
Asked whether the planned further lockdown easing for June 21 should not go ahead, she said: “So far we’ve kind of been crossing our fingers a little bit, Sage and Public Health England both say it’s a more transmissible variant, we know it has some levels of vaccine escape.
“So we’re in a situation where, compared to two months ago, we now have a dominant variant, (it) transmits faster, and our vaccines are less effective against it.”
Asked if it would be “very demoralising” to remain as we are now, she said: “I think what’s demoralising is having a third wave. If we can just delay international travel, delay Stage 4 of the road map until we have a much higher proportion of people vaccinated with two doses, we’re in a much, much better position. We’re only two months away from that, it’s not long to wait. What I don’t want is for us to have new restrictions.”
Mediterranean and Caribbean islands at front of race to join green list
While the majority of destinations look set to miss out on a green list spot, there’s a handful of countries that could clinch a place, according to Robert Boyle and Paul Charles. These include:
- Greek Islands
- Canary Islands
- Malta
- Finland
- Slovakia
- Balearic Islands
- Barbados
- Jamaica
The ‘green’ list
Here’s a recap of where’s is currently on the Government’s ‘green’ list – as ministers prepared to review the traffic light system next week.
- Australia
- Brunei
- Falkland Islands
- Faroe Islands
- Gibraltar
- Iceland
- Israel
- New Zealand
- Portugal
- Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
- Singapore
- South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
UK travellers may not need PCR test on return from green list countries
Ministers are to consider lifting the requirement for “expensive” PCR tests for fully vaccinated holidaymakers returning from green list countries – but the decision will hinge on Porton Down tests on transmissibility.
Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, said he was in favour of a “vaccination dividend” for jabbed travellers but ministers would need to be reassured by scientists that there was no serious risk of transmission from those who had been inoculated.
He said the evidence to date showed fully vaccinated people did not have 100 per cent protection from catching the virus. Instead it was about 85 per cent, which meant it was critical to assess the risk of transmission once a vaccinated traveller was back in the UK.
What happened yesterday?
- Travel bosses demand expansion of green list
- Cyprus to ease virus restrictions from June 10
- Date set for Royal Caribbean’s US cruise return
- DfT to publish consultation on travel consumers’ rights
- June 21 reopening ‘hangs in the balance’
- EU backs Japan holding ‘safe and secure’ Olympics
- Shapps has asked that islands be considered for green list criteria
Now, onto today’s news.