In June 2023, Modelo Especial overtook Bud Light to become the best selling beer brand in America. Since then, the sales gap between the two brands has widened—and Michelob Ultra has also overtaken Bud Light to become the second-best selling brand in America—continuing a growth trend that started many years ago.
“Modelo, and to a certain extent other Mexican import beer brands, have been able to appeal to drinkers with a lifestyle message that is targeted and yet still universal,” said Kate Bernot, lead analyst with Sightlines, a beverage alcohol insights platform, in a telephone interview. “Miller and Coors, by trying to be appealing to everyone, stopped being special to anyone. And then here comes Corona, Modelo and Pacifico, feeling fresher and more authentic.”
“They’re just cooler brands,” said Bernot, referring to Mexican import beers.
While many cite the Dylan Mulvaney controversy as causing the decline of sales of Bud Light, sales of the brand had been declining for years while sales of import brands, particularly those from Mexico, have been on the rise. Sightlines had years ago predicted that Modelo Especial would overtake Bud Light, though the Mulvaney controversy did accelerate the change in position of America’s top-selling beers.
Mexican Culture Has Grown In Popularity
According to Bernot, in the food and beverage world, the first generation of immigrants are often trend setters, so popularity of Latin American culture has been on the rise for a while. “We see it in music as well,” said Bernot. “Look at Bad Bunny and Nathy Peluso. It matters that these beers have cultural cache at a time when Hispanic cultural exports of all kinds—food, music and art—are enjoying a moment in American mainstream culture.”
Bernot cites data from the Beer Institute, which shows that beer imported from Mexico made up about 81% of imported beer volume to the U.S. in 2023, an increase of 2% over 2022. Just ten years ago, Mexican beer made up just 61% of beer imported to the U.S.
That growth cannot be attributed to Hispanic drinks alone. According to Bernot, in 2023, more non-Hispanic households (61%) purchased Modelo than Hispanic households (39%). Even in craft beer, beers labeled “Mexican lager” have seen a surge in popularity.
A Problem Unique To America
In a quirk of the beer industry, Constellation Brands only owns the rights to sell Modelo beer brands, which include Corona and Pacifico, in America. The world’s largest beer company, AB InBev, owns the rights everywhere else. After AB InBev purchased Grupo Modelo in 2012, the Justice Department reached a settlement with AB InBev requiring it to dispose of the rights to sell Modelo’s beer brands in the U.S.
Constellation was the purchaser and has seen those brands thrive since. “Constellation is just really good at marketing and selling their beers,” said Bernot. As to why AB InBev, with its size and marketing might, was not able to respond, Bernot says, “They tried. They foresaw the threat of Mexican imports and introduced Bud Light Lime way back in 2008. That enjoyed some success, but Bud Light can’t just shed 100 years of marketing baggage.”
Accelerating Constellation’s success with its Mexican beer brands is their relationship with Reyes Beverage Group, the largest beer distributor in America. “When you pair these organically in-demand brands with one of the largest, most aggressive wholesalers in the country, it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire,” said Bernot.
That very threat of Mexican import brands is what drove AB InBev to purchase Grupo Modelo in 2012. But the anti-trust concerns of the Justice Department, which resulted in Constellation Brands owning the Modelo brands in the U.S., eventually culminated in Modelo Especial displacing AB InBev’s own Bud Light as the most popular beer in America.